Surf Coast surf forecast for Torquay, Jan Juc, Bells Beach and Winkipop, updated 13 August 2026. Small but clean surf is the opening theme, followed by a potentially more favourable run of light winds over the weekend. Confidence drops sharply beyond Tuesday, so treat the second week as a trend—not a day-by-day promise.
Surf Coast swell outlook chart
Expected face-height range at exposed breaks. Sheltered beaches and individual reefs will differ.
0.3–0.6m
0.3–0.7m
0.4–0.8m
0.4–0.8m
0.3–0.7m
0.3–0.7m
Variable
Blue bars: higher-confidence short-range guidance. Purple bar: low-confidence week-two trend.
Daily conditions scorecard
Small / mixed
★★☆☆☆
Cleanest window
★★★☆☆
Offshore potential
★★★☆☆
Watch for a pulse
Low confidence
Surf Coast forecast at a glance
| Period | Expected surf | Wind and quality | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 13 Aug | Small, around 0.3–0.6m at Bells | Westerly 20–30km/h; cleaner at protected reefs, limited power | High |
| Fri 14 Aug | Small background swell; occasional workable sets | W–NW early, tending W–SW then easing; mixed quality | High |
| Sat 15 Aug | Small to modest; best on exposed magnets | Light winds offer the best chance of clean faces | Medium–high |
| Sun 16 Aug | Small to modest background energy | Light winds; another potentially clean window | Medium |
| Mon 17 Aug | Small, with exposed beaches favoured | Light early, easterly later; protected western-facing reefs may stay tidy | Medium |
| Tue 18 Aug | Watch for small residual swell | NE 15–25km/h, generally offshore for much of the Surf Coast | Medium |
| Wed 19–Wed 26 Aug | At least one new Southern Ocean pulse is plausible, but timing and size are uncertain | Frontal changes may alternate clean northerly windows with bumpy west-to-southwest winds | Low |
Thursday and Friday: clean at times, but small
The clearest short-range signal is limited wave height. Swellify’s Bells Beach model had Thursday building only to about 0.4–0.6m, albeit with clean, offshore conditions. That points to a longboard, midlength or high-volume groveller session rather than a serious Bells bowl day. Expect exposed swell magnets to show more than sheltered Torquay beaches, while reefs needing real push may be slow between sets.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects westerly winds around 20–30km/h on Thursday. Friday brings west-to-northwesterly winds early, turning west-to-southwesterly during the day and easing later. The practical call is to check early: protected reefs should handle the west better than open beach breaks, but there may not be enough swell for every option to work.
Weekend: the cleanest opportunity
Saturday and Sunday currently offer the most appealing wind pattern. The Bureau forecasts light winds on both days, only a slight shower risk Saturday and a dry Sunday. With no strong new swell confidently indicated yet, wave size may remain modest, but clean surface conditions can make small surf much more worthwhile.
For beginners, choose a patrolled or familiar open beach with manageable whitewater and avoid shallow reefs. For intermediate surfers, exposed Jan Juc-area peaks may offer more push than protected Torquay. Experienced riders should watch the reefs around Bells and Winki for any longer-period sets, but bring enough foam to survive the waits.
Monday and Tuesday: offshore potential
Monday starts with light winds before an easterly develops. Tuesday is forecast mostly sunny with northeasterlies strengthening to 15–25km/h. North-to-northeast wind is favourable for many Surf Coast breaks, so Tuesday could produce clean lines if even a modest southwest swell is present. It is the best “watch this space” day in the current seven-day window.
Surf Coast surf forecast for week two: 19–26 August
A precise two-week surf forecast would overstate what the models can reliably tell us. Southern Ocean lows and fronts can generate new southwest groundswell, but small changes in storm track, strength and arrival time create large differences at Bells and Torquay. The responsible outlook is variable winter surf with a reasonable chance of at least one new pulse, interspersed with frontal west-to-southwest winds and cleaner northerly windows.
Do not plan a specific day around a wave-height number this far ahead. Recheck the forecast around 72 hours before surfing, then confirm wind and swell observations on the morning.
Best bets
- Best chance of clean small waves: Saturday 15 and Sunday 16 August.
- Best offshore setup: Tuesday 18 August, subject to swell.
- Best equipment: longboard, midlength or generous-volume shortboard through the first several days.
- Biggest uncertainty: the arrival and strength of any new southwest pulse in week two.
Safety and forecast notes
Winter water is cold, conditions change quickly and reef entries can be hazardous. Check the latest Bureau of Meteorology Torquay forecast, marine wind forecast and current warnings before paddling out. Wind gusts can be substantially stronger than forecast averages. Match the break to your ability and never rely on a two-week outlook for safety decisions.
Forecast basis: Bureau of Meteorology Torquay and marine guidance plus the public Swellify Bells Beach forecast, checked 13 August 2026. This editorial interpretation is not an official warning service.
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